泸州老窖：税负扰动利润，挖掘市场拓展增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings growth of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [9][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 16.9 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and a net profit of 8.03 billion RMB, up 13.2% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.72 billion RMB, reflecting a 10.5% year-on-year growth, while the net profit was 3.45 billion RMB, a modest increase of 2.2% year-on-year [2]. - The product structure remained stable, with mid-range and premium liquor segments showing revenue growth of 17% and 7% respectively, driven primarily by volume increases [3]. - The report indicates a slight decline in average selling prices for mid-range products, while the gross profit margin for premium products improved [3]. - The company is focusing on digital marketing strategies and expanding its consumer base to drive growth [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.9 billion RMB, a 15.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.03 billion RMB, up 13.2% [2]. - Q2 2024 results showed a revenue of 7.72 billion RMB, a 10.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.45 billion RMB, a 2.2% increase year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The revenue from mid-range liquor reached 15.21 billion RMB, up 17% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.63 billion RMB, up 7% year-on-year [3]. - The sales volume for mid-range liquor increased by 26%, while ordinary liquor saw a 1% increase [3]. - The gross profit margin for mid-range liquor decreased slightly, while ordinary liquor's margin improved [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a revenue growth of 15.3%, 12.2%, and 10.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth of 14.2%, 13.6%, and 11.8% for the same years [3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.28 RMB, 11.68 RMB, and 13.06 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.6, 10.2, and 9.1 [3].