承德露露：新老品齐发力较快成长，短期利润承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.634 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 9.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 294 million yuan, a decrease of 6.80% year-over-year [3][4]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 407 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 15.39%, and a net profit of 47.19 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.59% year-over-year [4][6]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and expanding its product matrix, particularly in the plant-based beverage sector, to enhance brand competitiveness and meet diverse consumer needs [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.634 billion yuan, with a gross margin decrease of 3.41 percentage points due to a significant rise in raw material costs [3][4]. - The company’s expenses increased, with the expense ratio rising by 1.34 percentage points, leading to a decline in net profit margin by 3.12 percentage points [3][4]. Product Development - The company launched new products under its almond beverage line and is actively developing a series of LOLO sparkling water products to diversify its offerings [4][6]. - The almond beverage series generated 1.584 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 8.68% [4]. Sales Channels - Direct sales channels grew significantly, with revenue reaching 113 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 134.08%, while the distribution model generated 1.521 billion yuan, up 5.23% year-over-year [6]. - The company has expanded its retail presence by developing various store formats and hosting numerous promotional events [6]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 3.259 billion yuan, 3.583 billion yuan, and 3.929 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 638 million yuan, 763 million yuan, and 849 million yuan [5][8]. - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15-18 times for 2024, with a reasonable price range of 9.15 to 10.98 yuan per share [6][8].