Yanghe(002304) 华鑫证券·2024-09-01 05:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.876 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.947 billion yuan, up 1% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 3% to 6.621 billion yuan, primarily due to weakened external demand and intensified market competition [1] - The company has initiated a cash dividend plan for 2024-2026, committing to distribute no less than 70% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders, with a minimum of 7 billion yuan each year, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company faces intensified competition within the province and is undergoing reform adjustments [1] Earnings Forecast - The company’s H1 2024 white liquor revenue was 22.436 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, with sales volume at 115.6 thousand tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% [2] - The average price per ton of liquor increased by 5% to 194.1 thousand yuan [2] - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 19.961 billion yuan, also up 5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 2.530 billion yuan, maintaining a 5% increase [2] - The company’s sales model showed a 5% increase in wholesale and distribution revenue to 22.254 billion yuan, while online direct sales revenue decreased by 9% to 2.37 billion yuan [2] - The company’s revenue from provincial and non-provincial markets was 9.595 billion yuan and 12.896 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 1% and 8% [2] Financial Adjustments - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 6.72, 7.14, and 7.59 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 12, and 11 times [4]