LZLJ(SZ:000568) Huaan Securities·2024-09-01 06:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported its 2024H1 performance, with Q2 revenue of 7.716 billion yuan (+10.51%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.454 billion yuan (+2.24%) [4] - For H1 2024, total revenue reached 16.905 billion yuan (+15.84%) and net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.028 billion yuan (+13.22%), which was below market consensus expectations [4] - The company is focusing on channel health and maintaining stable pricing during the industry adjustment cycle, with mid-tier products becoming a key growth driver [7] Revenue Summary - The company's liquor business revenue grew by 16.04% year-on-year in H1 2024, with mid-to-high-end and other liquor revenues increasing by 17.12% and 6.86% respectively [5] - Mid-to-high-end liquor sales volume increased by 25.71%, while the price per ton decreased by 6.84%, indicating a shift towards mid-tier products [5] - The company’s revenue and contract liabilities increased by 18.72% year-on-year in H1 2024, aligning with revenue growth [5] Profitability Summary - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 rose by 0.18 percentage points to 88.81%, although the net profit margin decreased by 3.75 percentage points to 44.94% due to increased tax rates and promotional expenses [6] - The company’s operating expenses remained stable, with sales, management, and tax rates showing slight variations [6] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating, with adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 at 34.873 billion, 39.614 billion, and 45.408 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.3%, 13.6%, and 14.6% [8] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 15.297 billion, 17.637 billion, and 20.390 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 15.3%, and 15.6% [8]