CCB(601939) 光大证券·2024-09-01 06:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with EPS forecasts for 2024-26 at 1.34, 1.36, and 1.4 yuan respectively [6] Core Views - The company is steadily advancing its three major strategies: "housing rental," "inclusive finance," and "fintech," aiming to create a "second growth curve" [6] - Revenue and profitability are growing steadily, with strong credit demand and favorable development in housing rental, green finance, and inclusive agriculture [6] - The company's PB valuations for 2024-26 are 0.59x, 0.55x, and 0.51x, with PE valuations at 5.62x, 5.52x, and 5.37x respectively [6] Financial Performance - Net interest income for 2022A was 643,669 million yuan, declining to 617,233 million yuan in 2023A, and is expected to further decrease to 578,076 million yuan in 2024E [2] - Non-interest income increased from 140,091 million yuan in 2022A to 152,503 million yuan in 2023A, with further growth expected to 169,317 million yuan in 2024E [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company grew from 324,727 million yuan in 2022A to 332,653 million yuan in 2023A, with a slight increase to 334,839 million yuan projected for 2024E [2] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased from 1.38% in 2022A to 1.37% in 2023A, with further improvement expected to 1.27% in 2024E [3] - The provision coverage ratio remained stable at around 240%, with 241.5% in 2022A and 239.9% in 2023A [3] - The capital adequacy ratio was 18.42% in 2022A, slightly decreasing to 17.95% in 2023A, and is expected to decline further to 17.10% in 2024E [3] Profitability Metrics - ROAA (Return on Average Assets) decreased from 1.00% in 2022A to 0.91% in 2023A, with a further decline to 0.83% expected in 2024E [1] - ROAE (Return on Average Equity) declined from 12.48% in 2022A to 11.74% in 2023A, with a projected decrease to 10.92% in 2024E [1] - EPS (Earnings Per Share) increased slightly from 1.30 yuan in 2022A to 1.33 yuan in 2023A, with a forecast of 1.34 yuan for 2024E [3] Interest Rate Trends - The net interest margin (NIM) decreased from 2.03% in 2022A to 1.72% in 2023A, with a further decline to 1.44% expected in 2024E [1] - The loan yield dropped from 4.24% in 2022A to 3.91% in 2023A, with a projected decrease to 3.60% in 2024E [1] - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased from 1.86% in 2022A to 1.97% in 2023A, with a slight decline to 1.96% expected in 2024E [1] Credit Growth and Structure - Total assets grew from 34,600,711 million yuan in 2022A to 38,324,826 million yuan in 2023A, with further growth expected to 42,445,444 million yuan in 2024E [2] - Loans and advances increased from 21,148,135 million yuan in 2022A to 23,810,982 million yuan in 2023A, with a forecast of 26,549,245 million yuan in 2024E [2] - The proportion of loans in interest-bearing assets increased to 64% in 2Q24, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [19] Deposit Trends - Total deposits grew from 24,621,243 million yuan in 2022A to 27,223,304 million yuan in 2023A, with further growth expected to 29,945,634 million yuan in 2024E [2] - The proportion of time deposits increased to 57% in 2Q24, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a continued trend of deposit termization [19] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income accounted for 23% of total revenue in 1H24, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1% [31] - Fee and commission income decreased by 11% year-on-year in 1H24, primarily due to declining rates in insurance and fund industries [31] - Other non-interest income increased by 56% year-on-year in 1H24, driven by favorable factors such as declining bond market interest rates [31]