Binjiang Group(002244) 华泰证券·2024-09-01 06:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Binjiang Group with a target price of RMB 10.80 [2] Core Views - Binjiang Group's H1 2024 revenue decreased by 10% YoY to RMB 24.2 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 29% YoY to RMB 1.17 billion [2] - The company's gross margin fell by 8.7 percentage points to 9.6% due to the delivery of high-cost land projects acquired in 2020-2021 [3] - Full-year net profit is expected to recover to positive growth, supported by a planned 7% increase in delivery area to 4.43 million square meters, mainly in Q4 [3] - The company maintains its 2024 sales target of over RMB 100 billion and a market share of over 1%, despite a 37% YoY decline in H1 sales to RMB 58.2 billion [4] - Land acquisition intensity remained strong at 38%, with all new land parcels located in Hangzhou [4] - Financial stability improved, with a 4% reduction in interest-bearing debt to RMB 39.9 billion and a significant decrease in comprehensive financing costs to 3.7% [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow by 4.02% in 2024E to RMB 73.27 billion, with a further 2.58% increase in 2025E [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 10.45% in 2024E to RMB 2.79 billion [6] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 0.90 in 2024E, increasing to RMB 0.95 in 2025E and RMB 0.98 in 2026E [6] - ROE is expected to improve from 4.88% in 2023 to 5.04% in 2024E and 5.74% in 2025E [6] Valuation - The report assigns a 12x 2024E PE multiple, higher than the industry average of 9x, reflecting the company's strong land acquisition strategy and concentrated resources in Hangzhou [2] - The target price of RMB 10.80 represents a 28.3% upside from the current price of RMB 8.42 [2][9]