SINOTRANS(SH:601598) HTSC·2024-09-01 06:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 4.40 / RMB 6.40 [7][8] Core Views - The company's revenue for 1H24 reached RMB 56.4 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.95 billion, down 11.0% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a net profit of RMB 1.14 billion, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.3% due to improved export demand and rising international shipping prices [2][3] - The company announced an interim dividend of RMB 0.145 per share, with a payout ratio of 54%, resulting in a current dividend yield of 4% for H shares and 3% for A shares [2] - The performance of the freight forwarding and cross-border e-commerce businesses was strong, while the demand for professional logistics was weak [2] Summary by Sections International Freight Forwarding and Related Businesses - In 1H24, the company's sea freight forwarding volume was 7.449 million TEUs, up 19.1% year-on-year, with operating profit of RMB 480 million, an increase of 9.0% [3] - Air freight forwarding volume reached 413,000 tons, up 24.6% year-on-year, with operating profit of RMB 110 million, an increase of 8.3% [3] - The ship agency and warehouse services saw volume growth of 3.3% and 6.5% respectively, with operating profits of RMB 280 million and RMB 190 million, showing mixed performance [3] E-commerce Business - The e-commerce segment achieved revenue of RMB 6.13 billion in 1H24, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, with operating profit rising 29.3% to RMB 110 million [4] - The cross-border e-commerce logistics, logistics e-commerce platform, and equipment sharing platform reported operating profits of RMB 74 million, RMB 13 million, and RMB 27 million, respectively, with significant growth in cross-border logistics [4] Professional Logistics - The professional logistics business saw revenue growth of 3.0% to RMB 15.2 billion in 1H24, but operating profit declined by 26.8% to RMB 410 million due to weak demand and falling contract prices [5] - Specific segments such as contract logistics and project logistics reported volume growth, but profitability was negatively impacted [5] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 down by 10%, 9%, and 9% to RMB 4.1 billion, RMB 4.46 billion, and RMB 4.71 billion respectively [2][6] - The estimated PE ratios for 2024 are set at 7.1x, with a target price based on historical PE averages adjusted for the company's improved profitability and dividend payout [2][6]