古井贡酒：高增势能延续，盈利能力持续提升

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy [1] - Target Price: RMB 224.20 [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong growth momentum with a revenue of RMB 13.81 billion and a net profit of RMB 3.57 billion for the first half of 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 22.1% and 28.5% respectively [2] - The company is focusing on high-end products, particularly the core product "Gu 20", which is driving brand momentum, while also expanding into the banquet market with "Gu 16" [2][3] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 80.4% in the first half of 2024, indicating enhanced profitability [4] Revenue and Profitability - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 13.81 billion and net profit of RMB 3.57 billion, with growth rates of 22.1% and 28.5% respectively [2] - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 80.4%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.9% [4] - The company expects a net profit CAGR of 24% from 2024 to 2026, which is higher than the average of comparable companies at 13% [2] Product and Market Expansion - The company is optimizing its product structure, with significant revenue contributions from various products: RMB 10.79 billion from year-end raw liquor, RMB 1.24 billion from Gujing Gongjiu, and RMB 1.40 billion from Huanghelou and others, showing year-on-year growth of 23.1%, 11.5%, and 26.6% respectively [3] - The company is expanding its market presence outside its home province, with notable revenue growth in North China (35.1%), South China (17.2%), and Central China (21.3%) [3] - The number of distributors has increased, indicating a solid foundation for further market penetration [3] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts EPS of RMB 11.21, RMB 13.73, and RMB 16.46 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] - The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 24.33 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.12% [6] - The company maintains a target price of RMB 224.20, reflecting a PE ratio of 20x for 2024 [5]