NEW HOPE(000876) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-09-01 06:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company is experiencing a recovery in profitability driven by a dual engine of pig farming and feed production, with an upward cycle in the industry [3] - The company's H1 2024 revenue was 49.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.62%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.217 billion yuan, an increase of 59.18% year-on-year [3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 2.073 billion, 2.198 billion, and 1.622 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.46, 0.48, and 0.36 yuan [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The company's pig farming revenue in H1 2024 was 11.801 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.99%, with a gross profit of -478 million yuan and a gross margin of -4.05% [4] - The number of pigs sold was 8.69 million heads, a decrease of 3.40% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 15.02 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.73% year-on-year [4] - The company aims to reduce breeding costs, with the total cost expected to decrease to around 14 yuan/kg by the end of 2024 [4] Feed Business - The feed business generated revenue of 32.886 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, with a net profit of approximately 460 million yuan [5] - Total feed sales reached 12.38 million tons, with poultry feed sales increasing by 11% year-on-year, while pig feed sales decreased by 34% due to increased competition and reduced pig inventory [5] - The company expects a narrowing decline in pig feed sales in H2 2024 as pig prices rise [5] Financial Metrics - The company's projected revenue for 2024 is 126.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, with a projected net profit of 2.073 billion yuan, reflecting a significant recovery [6] - The company's current P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 19.8, 18.6, and 25.3 respectively [6] - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 40.957 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 9.01 yuan [7]