恒顺醋业：Q2收入加速，毛利率同比承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [1][5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 11.83% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with a net profit decrease of 24.16%. However, the second quarter showed signs of recovery with a revenue increase of 3.36% [2][3]. - The vinegar series, wine series, and sauce series reported revenues of 6.84 billion, 1.60 billion, and 0.83 billion respectively in the first half of 2024, with mixed growth rates across categories [3]. - The company is undergoing internal reforms, which are expected to yield positive results in the long term despite short-term operational pressures [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: The company’s revenue is projected to be 20.00 billion, 22.28 billion, and 24.36 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [3][4]. - Net Profit Forecasts: Expected net profits are 1.31 billion, 1.56 billion, and 1.79 billion for the same years, also revised downwards [3][4]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is forecasted to be 0.12, 0.14, and 0.16 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 61.3, 51.3, and 44.8 [1][3][4]. - Gross Margin: The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 36.55%, but it decreased to 32.46% in the second quarter [3][4]. Market Position and Trends - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 8.01 billion, with a share price of 7.20 [1]. - The report highlights a significant increase in online sales in the second quarter, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [3]. Regional Performance - Revenue performance varied by region, with the East China region showing a slight decline, while South China experienced growth in the second quarter [3]. Cost Structure - The report notes an increase in sales expenses, which rose to 16.64% in the first half of 2024, impacting overall profitability [3][4].