Caitong Securities(601108) 海通证券·2024-09-01 07:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's wealth management transformation has shown significant results, with a high proportion of income from financial product distribution [3] - The asset management business has distinct characteristics, with advantages in active management and public fund transformation [3] - The reasonable value range is estimated at 8.61-9.40 yuan [3] - The company's 2024 H1 performance: revenue of 3.03 billion yuan, down 12.9% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 930 million yuan, down 10.6% YoY [3] - The decline in net profit is mainly due to poor performance in proprietary trading and investment banking businesses [3] Business Performance Brokerage Business - Brokerage revenue in 2024 H1 was 570 million yuan, down 1.3% YoY, accounting for 18.9% of total revenue [3] - Cumulative sales of financial products and product holdings increased by 8.5% and 18.9% YoY, respectively [3] - Revenue from financial product distribution was 75.56 million yuan, down 6.0% YoY, accounting for 13.2% of brokerage revenue [3] - Margin financing balance was 16.9 billion yuan, down 11% from the beginning of the year [3] Investment Banking - Investment banking revenue in 2024 H1 was 280 million yuan, down 11.9% YoY [4] - Equity underwriting scale decreased by 21.6% YoY, while bond underwriting scale decreased by 14.4% YoY [4] - Equity underwriting scale was 2.43 billion yuan, ranking 13th in the industry [4] - Bond underwriting scale was 61.8 billion yuan, ranking 20th in the industry [4] Asset Management - Asset management revenue in 2024 H1 was 830 million yuan, up 17.9% YoY [4] - Asset management scale reached 286.3 billion yuan, up 3.5% YoY [4] - Non-monetary public fund scale reached a record high of 70.4 billion yuan [4] Proprietary Trading - Investment income (including fair value) in 2024 H1 was 810 million yuan, down 34.8% YoY [4] - The company has formed a diversified asset allocation strategy with bond investment as the core [4] Financial Forecasts - Expected EPS for 2024-2026: 0.42/0.49/0.53 yuan [4] - Expected BVPS for 2024-2026: 7.83/8.18/8.60 yuan [4] - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026: 56.12/66.23/70.82 billion yuan [5] - Net profit forecast for 2024-2026: 19.42/22.96/24.58 billion yuan [5] Valuation - The company is valued at 1.1-1.2x P/B for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 8.61-9.40 yuan [4]