GUJING(SZ:000596) Guoxin Securities·2024-09-01 07:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gujing Gongjiu (000596.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [3][5] Core Views - The company continues to experience a trend of product structure upgrades, leading to an increase in net profit margins. In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue growth of 16.8% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 24.6% [1][4] - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 13.806 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, and a net profit of 3.573 billion yuan, up 28.5% year-on-year [1][4] - The company is focusing on high-quality growth in its premium product lines, particularly the "Nianfen Yuanjiang" brand, which saw a revenue increase of 23.12% in H1 2024 [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the revenue breakdown by brand shows "Nianfen Yuanjiang" at 10.787 billion yuan (+23.12%), "Gujing Gongjiu" at 1.238 billion yuan (+11.47%), and "Huanghelou" at 1.403 billion yuan (+26.53%) [1][4] - The gross profit margin for "Nianfen Yuanjiang" increased by 1.16 percentage points, while "Gujing Gongjiu" saw a decrease of 3.02 percentage points [1][4] - The company reported a slight increase in expense ratios in Q2 2024, with comprehensive net profit margin rising by 1.7 percentage points [1][4] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage despite industry pressures. The revenue forecast for 2024 and 2025 is 24.507 billion yuan and 29.041 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 21.0% and 18.5% [5][9] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 5.808 billion yuan and 7.216 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 26.6% and 24.2% [5][9] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.7 for 2024, indicating a high confidence in EPS growth [5][9]