HTSC(601688) 国信证券·2024-09-01 07:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huatai Securities is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][5] Core Views - The report highlights that Huatai Securities is facing challenges due to industry constraints, prompting a transformation with accelerated overseas, asset management, and wealth management layouts [1] - In the first half of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 17.441 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.311 billion yuan, down 19% year-on-year [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to market conditions and policy impacts, particularly a decrease in investment banking revenue and investment income [1] - The brokerage business is under pressure, with brokerage income falling to 2.723 billion yuan, a 14% year-on-year decrease [1] - Investment banking revenue dropped significantly by 42% to 931 million yuan, with equity underwriting down 73% [1] - Asset management performance is strong, with net income from asset management fees increasing by 6% to 2.220 billion yuan, and AUM reaching approximately 506 billion yuan, also up 6% [1] - International business revenue grew by 19% to 6.491 billion yuan, indicating new opportunities abroad [1] Financial Summary - The company’s financial forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 show a downward adjustment in profit predictions by 3.18%, 0.49%, and 1.01% respectively, with projected net profits of 13.485 billion yuan, 14.532 billion yuan, and 15.650 billion yuan [2][5] - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 1.5 yuan, 1.6 yuan, and 1.7 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.5, 7.9, and 7.3 [2][5] - The report indicates a steady increase in AUM for Huatai Asset Management and a strong position in the market for index funds [1][2]