洋河股份：第二季度业绩承压，现金分红回报指引积极

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][4][5] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the second quarter of 2024, but has announced a three-year cash dividend plan with a minimum payout ratio of 70% and a total dividend amount of no less than 7 billion yuan (including tax) for the years 2024-2026, indicating a commitment to return value to shareholders [4][5] - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [4][5] - The company is focusing on both domestic and international markets, with domestic revenue growing by 1.42% and international revenue growing by 7.50% in the first half of 2024 [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported total revenue of 6.621 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%, and a net profit of 1.892 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [4][5] - The company's white liquor business revenue increased by 4.89% year-on-year in H1 2024, with mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor revenues of 19.961 billion yuan and 2.530 billion yuan, respectively [4][5] - The gross profit margin for mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by 1.37 percentage points, while that for ordinary liquor increased by 2.76 percentage points [4][5] Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "focus + transformation" strategy in domestic markets while developing high-ground markets in international regions [4][5] - As of the end of Q2, the company had 8,833 distributors, with a net decrease of 18 in domestic markets and an increase of 62 in international markets [4][5] Profitability Forecast - The company has adjusted its revenue forecast for 2024-2025, expecting revenues of 32.247 billion yuan and 33.899 billion yuan, representing year-on-year changes of -2.7% and +5.1%, respectively [5][6] - The net profit forecast for 2024-2025 is set at 9.521 billion yuan and 9.868 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4.9% and +3.6%, respectively [5][6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12.2 for 2024, with a dividend yield of 6%, indicating a high margin of safety in valuation [5][6]