ANG(603689) 华源证券·2024-09-01 08:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.923 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 9.65%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.21% to 190 million RMB [3]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a decrease in upstream gas prices and the linkage of downstream selling prices, which affects the revenue recognition model [3]. - The company's gas transmission volume reached 2.317 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.86%, indicating growth in its core pipeline business despite short-term pressures from price adjustments [3]. - The natural gas consumption in Anhui province has shown significant growth, with a record high of 5.65 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2024, up 24.7% year-on-year, which supports the company's long-term growth prospects [3]. - The urban gas business has seen a substantial increase in gross margin, reaching 11.80%, up 6.19 percentage points year-on-year, contributing positively to overall performance [3]. - The company forecasts net profits of 370 million, 437 million, and 501 million RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company experienced a revenue decline of 3.12 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, mainly due to lower upstream gas prices impacting the long-distance pipeline business [3]. - Gross profit for the core pipeline business was 255 million RMB, a slight decrease of 2.69%, while the urban gas business saw a significant increase in gross profit of 93 million RMB, up 115.74% [3]. Market Performance - The company's gas transmission volume growth and improved gross margin in urban gas business indicate resilience and potential for future growth despite current challenges [3]. - The report highlights that the pricing mechanism for gas transmission is reviewed every three years, suggesting that the company may benefit from increased scale in the long run [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in the medium to long term, supported by the increasing natural gas consumption in Anhui province and the expansion of its urban gas business [3]. - The projected dividend yield for the next three years is estimated at 4.04%, 4.77%, and 5.47%, reflecting a favorable return for investors [3].