泸州老窖：上半年收入增速稳健，第二季度税金率波动影响净利润增速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 15.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching 169.05 billion yuan and a net profit of 80.28 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.2% [5][6] - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue increase of 10.5% year-on-year, totaling 77.16 billion yuan, while net profit grew by 2.2% to 34.54 billion yuan [5][6] - The company’s liquor revenue increased by 16.0% year-on-year in H1 2024, with mid-to-high-end liquor sales growing by 17.12% [5][6] - The company is actively controlling inventory and improving channel health, with preparations for the Mid-Autumn Festival sales underway [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company’s total revenue was 169.05 billion yuan, up 15.8% year-on-year, and net profit was 80.28 billion yuan, up 13.2% [5][6] - Q2 2024 revenue was 77.16 billion yuan, a 10.5% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 34.54 billion yuan, a 2.2% increase [5][6] - Mid-to-high-end liquor revenue reached 152.13 billion yuan, growing 17.12% year-on-year, while other liquor revenue was 16.25 billion yuan, up 6.86% [5][6] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by 0.23 percentage points, while the gross margin for other liquor increased by 0.52 percentage points [5][6] - The company faced pressure from increased tax rates, with consumption tax rising by 30.4% year-on-year in H1 2024 [6][7] - The company’s operating cash flow decreased by 6.6% year-on-year in Q2 2024, indicating challenges in maintaining cash flow [6][7] Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025, now expecting revenues of 348.7 billion yuan and 397.0 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 15.4% and 13.8%, respectively [6][7] - The net profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 is adjusted to 149.8 billion yuan and 171.7 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 13.1% and 14.6% [6][7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 11.7 for 2024, maintaining a cautious outlook on profit margin improvements [6][7]