SA(601021) 国信证券·2024-09-01 08:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Spring Airlines (601021 SH) [1][4][8] Core Views - Spring Airlines demonstrated robust revenue growth and excellent cost control in H1 2024 [1] - The company's passenger revenue performance remained stable, with significant improvements in supply-demand metrics [1][5] - Unit costs showed a slight year-over-year decline, supporting continued earnings growth [1][5] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 9 88 billion yuan (+23 0% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 36 billion yuan (+62 3% YoY) [1][5] - Q2 2024 revenue was 4 71 billion yuan (+12 9% YoY), with net profit of 551 million yuan (+14 1% YoY) [1][5] - Gross margin improved to 15 0% (+1 6pct YoY), while net margin reached 13 8% (+3 3pct YoY) [1][5] Operational Metrics - ASK and RPK grew by 21 5% and 26 1% YoY respectively in H1 2024, with load factor reaching 91 3% (+3 4pct YoY) [1][5] - Passenger yield per kilometer was 0 393 yuan (-2 5% YoY), with domestic and international yields up 7 9% and 18 0% compared to 2019 [1][5] - Daily aircraft utilization increased by 14 4% YoY, contributing to fixed cost dilution [1][5] Fleet Expansion - The company plans to add 8 aircraft in 2024, with a total of 127 A320 series aircraft in operation by Q2 2024 [1][5] - Fleet expansion targets include net additions of 8, 12, and 14 aircraft for 2024-2026, with a CAGR of 8 6% from 2023-2026 [1][5] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are 21 557 billion, 24 314 billion, and 26 686 billion yuan respectively [2] - Net profit projections for 2024-2026 are 2 912 billion, 3 730 billion, and 4 384 billion yuan [2][9] - EPS estimates for 2024-2026 are 2 98, 3 81, and 4 48 yuan respectively [2] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 PE ratios are projected at 17 0x, 13 2x, and 11 3x [2] - PB ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 2 78x, 2 42x, and 2 10x [2] - ROE is expected to improve from 16 4% in 2024 to 18 7% in 2026 [2]