招商证券：业绩转正，深化转型

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][11]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.595 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 11%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.44% to 4.748 billion yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 4.08%, down 0.25 percentage points year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) remained flat at 0.51 yuan [1]. - The decline in performance is attributed to the downturn in the capital market and a continuous decrease in commission rates. The company is actively expanding its institutional business to solidify its advantages [1]. - The wealth management transformation is deepening, with the company maintaining a leading position in custody outsourcing and steadily building an institutional business ecosystem. The market share of stock trading reached 4.59%, and the scale of entrusted customer assets was 3.6 trillion yuan, down 3.23% from the end of 2023 [1]. - Investment income accounted for nearly half of the total revenue, with investment income (including fair value changes) reaching 4.753 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.31%. The scale of financial assets rose to 369.511 billion yuan, up 10.82% year-on-year [1]. - The asset management and investment banking businesses faced pressure, with a decline in IPO financing and a 36.3% drop in investment banking revenue to 285 million yuan. However, the bond financing scale increased by 18.41% to approximately 171.4 billion yuan [1]. Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 downwards by 8.11%, 10.23%, and 9.63%, respectively. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for these years is 8.955 billion yuan, 9.803 billion yuan, and 10.953 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 2.2%, 9.5%, and 11.7% [1][7]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 14.2, 13.0, and 11.6 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, while the price-to-book (PB) ratios are expected to be 1.0, 1.0, and 0.9 [1][7].