SAIC MOTOR(600104) 光大证券·2024-09-01 09:31Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1][2] Core Views - SAIC Motor's 1H24 revenue decreased by 12.4% YoY to RMB 277.09 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders down 6.5% YoY to RMB 6.63 billion [1] - 2Q24 revenue fell 21.4% YoY and 0.6% QoQ to RMB 138.1 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders down 9.0% YoY but up 44.2% QoQ to RMB 3.91 billion [1] - SAIC-GM's losses dragged down performance, with 1H24 losses reaching RMB 2.27 billion [1] - SAIC-Volkswagen and SAIC-GM-Wuling expected to show marginal improvement in 2H24 [1] - Overseas strategy focuses on flexible solutions, with HEV/fuel vehicle series launched to mitigate EU tariff policy risks [1] - Autonomous brand transformation underway, with IM Motors sales up 131.3% YoY to 27,000 units in the first 7 months of 2024 [1] Financial Performance - 1H24 gross margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 8.5% [1] - 2Q24 gross margin fell 1.3 percentage points YoY and 0.6 percentage points QoQ to 8.2% [1] - 1H24 investment income from associates and joint ventures dropped 51.6% YoY to RMB 2.21 billion [1] - 2Q24 investment income from associates and joint ventures plummeted 99.8% YoY and QoQ to RMB 4 million [1] Sales Performance - SAIC-Volkswagen sales in the first 7 months of 2024 decreased 1.5% YoY to 593,000 units, with 1H24 profit of RMB 860 million [1] - SAIC-GM sales in the first 7 months of 2024 dropped 55.1% YoY to 241,000 units, with 1H24 losses of RMB 2.27 billion [1] - SAIC-GM-Wuling sales in the first 7 months of 2024 increased 2.3% YoY to 644,000 units, with 1H24 profit of RMB 100 million [1] - SAIC Motor's overseas sales in the first 7 months of 2024 decreased 9.7% YoY to 570,000 units [1] Forecasts - 2024E-2026E net profit attributable to shareholders revised down by 31.3%/23.8%/17.6% to RMB 10.26/12.34/13.76 billion [1] - 2024E revenue expected to decrease 6.84% YoY to RMB 676.562 billion [2] - 2024E EPS forecast at RMB 0.89, with ROE (diluted) at 3.51% [2] - 2024E P/E ratio estimated at 14.2x, with P/B ratio at 0.5x [2] Strategic Initiatives - Implementing "Big Autonomous" strategy, integrating brand channels and technical resources [1] - MG and Roewe undergoing marketing channel adjustments to improve operational efficiency [1] - IM Motors launched 2024 LS6 SUV with Lingxi Digital Chassis at Chengdu Auto Show, targeting annual sales of 70,000-80,000 units [1]