合盛硅业24H1业绩点评：景气底部业绩承压，旺季硅价有望反弹

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on performance due to the bottom of the industry cycle, with a downward adjustment of the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to 1.81, 2.12, and 2.81 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.73, 3.13, and 3.49 yuan. The target price is adjusted to 63.35 yuan from 67.26 yuan, based on a 35 times PE for 2024 [3][5]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.272 billion and 978 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.18% in revenue but a decrease of 45.12% in net profit [3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in industrial silicon and organic silicon, with a complete industrial chain, which supports its long-term growth potential despite current challenges [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 27.265 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.6% compared to 2023. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline to 2.144 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.2% [4]. - The company’s gross profit margin is forecasted to be 19.4% in 2024, down from 20.1% in 2023, indicating pressure on profitability [4]. - The net asset return rate is expected to be 6.3% in 2024, reflecting a decline from 8.1% in 2023 [4]. Sales and Production Insights - The company’s sales volume for industrial silicon and cyclic siloxane in Q1 2024 was 16.96 and 1.92 million tons, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.14% and 15.79% [3]. - In Q2 2024, the sales volume for industrial silicon increased significantly to 40.62 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 102.29%, while cyclic siloxane sales decreased by 9.79% [3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in the photovoltaic industry, with significant projects underway, including a 200,000-ton annual production capacity for polysilicon and a 150 million-ton capacity for photovoltaic glass [3].