上汽集团：降库存影响短期表现，期待集团新面貌

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 17.84 [1][10][11] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance impacts due to inventory reduction, but there are expectations for a new transformation within the group [1][4] - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for H1 2024, with a focus on reducing channel inventory pressure and managing dealer financial risks [2][3] - The management is undergoing significant adjustments to drive internal strategic transformation, aiming for a robust recovery in the coming years [4][8] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 284.69 billion, down 12.82% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 6.628 billion, down 6.45% year-on-year [1][2] - The company’s Q2 2024 revenue was RMB 141.61 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.60% [1][2] - The EPS estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 1.19, 1.28, and 1.42 respectively [1][10] Sales and Market Performance - The company sold 1.827 million vehicles in H1 2024, with a significant focus on reducing inventory levels [2][8] - The sales performance varied by brand, with SAIC Volkswagen showing a slight increase while SAIC General and SAIC Passenger Cars faced significant declines [2][8] - The company’s export and overseas sales were 488,000 units, down 8.5% year-on-year, but the overseas market's terminal deliveries increased by 12.7% [2][8] Management and Strategic Outlook - The company is entering a necessary strategic transformation period under new leadership, with expectations for improved governance and operational efficiency [4][8] - The management changes are seen as a proactive step to address external pressures and enhance the company's competitive position in the market [4][8] Valuation Metrics - The company’s current valuation is considered low, with a projected PE ratio of 10.53 for 2024, compared to a comparable company average of 15.0 [10][11] - The target price reflects a conservative approach based on the company's ongoing transformation and market conditions [10][11]