华兰疫苗：上半年表现为常态，静待下半年销售

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 28.55 [5]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 shows a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 76% for both revenue and net profit [1]. - The report anticipates that sales of influenza vaccines will return to normal in the second half of 2024, particularly in the fourth quarter, as the sales of influenza vaccines are typically concentrated in that period [2]. - The supply-demand balance in the influenza vaccine industry is expected to improve in 2024, with stable production and supply from the company, which leads the industry in both production capacity and market share [3]. - The company is advancing its research pipeline, with several vaccines expected to enter clinical trials and production in the coming years [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company reported revenue of RMB 0.36 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 0.25 billion, both down 76% year-on-year [1]. - For 2Q24, the revenue was RMB 130 million, with a net loss of RMB 113.1 million, reflecting a 193% year-on-year decline in net profit [1]. Market Outlook - The report expects the influenza vaccine sales to normalize in 2024, with a projected return to typical sales patterns concentrated in the second half of the year [2]. - The overall vaccination rate for influenza in China is around 3%, indicating significant room for growth compared to the U.S. rate of approximately 50% [3]. Production and Supply - The company has maintained a leading position in the influenza vaccine market, with 66 batches of vaccines approved for sale in 1H24, including 60 batches of quadrivalent influenza vaccines [3]. - The report notes that the supply situation is expected to improve as competitors like Sanofi have paused their supply due to efficacy issues, which may enhance the company's market position [3]. Research and Development - The company has several vaccines in its pipeline, including Vero rabies vaccine and Tetanus vaccine, which have received approval and are expected to enhance product quality and market competitiveness [4]. - Future clinical trials for MenAC and DTacP vaccines are anticipated to start in 2025 and 2H24, respectively, along with ongoing development of mRNA vaccines [4].