FAW Jiefang(SZ:000800) Soochow Securities·2024-09-01 11:02Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a 19.2% YoY increase in net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of 2024, with strong performance in natural gas vehicles and exports [1] - The company's heavy truck market share increased YoY in Q2 2024, with exports continuing to grow [3] - The company's natural gas heavy truck penetration rate reached 36.1% in H1 2024, maintaining its leading position in the market [3] - The company's gross margin and net margin improved QoQ in Q2 2024, despite a YoY decline in gross margin [3] - The company's expense control capabilities were further demonstrated, with a YoY decrease in the period expense ratio [3] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was RMB 35.6 billion, up 7.8% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 478 million, up 19.2% YoY [3] - Q2 2024 revenue was RMB 16.62 billion, down 12.4% YoY and QoQ, with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 309 million, down 9.0% YoY but up 82.5% QoQ [3] - The company's heavy truck sales in Q2 2024 were 47,000 units, down 17.7% YoY and 20.7% QoQ, but terminal sales under the compulsory insurance caliber were 37,000 units, up 12.8% YoY and 14.9% QoQ [3] - The company's export sales of heavy trucks in Q2 2024 were 18,000 units, up 74.7% YoY and 39.6% QoQ, with an export market share of 22.9% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 1.028 billion, RMB 1.698 billion, and RMB 2.424 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's EPS is forecasted to be RMB 0.22, RMB 0.37, and RMB 0.52 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to be 34.76x, 21.05x, and 14.74x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] Market Data - The company's closing price was RMB 7.73, with a one-year low/high of RMB 7.19/10.86 [5] - The company's P/B ratio was 1.47x, with a circulating A-share market value of RMB 35.73 billion and a total market value of RMB 35.74 billion [5] Financial Data - The company's net asset per share was RMB 5.25, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 69.68% [6] - The company's total share capital was 4.624 billion shares, with circulating A-shares of 4.622 billion shares [6] Financial Projections - The company's total operating income is projected to be RMB 76.095 billion, RMB 91.824 billion, and RMB 101.132 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 1.028 billion, RMB 1.698 billion, and RMB 2.424 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 9.89%, 10.84%, and 11.46% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8] Cash Flow - The company's operating cash flow is projected to be RMB 4.402 billion, RMB 779 million, and RMB -779 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - The company's net cash increase is projected to be RMB 3.674 billion, RMB 927 million, and RMB -522 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9]