海信家电2024Q2点评：外销提速，符合预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a significant acceleration in overseas sales, aligning with expectations. The Q2 revenue reached 25.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.98%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.035 billion yuan, up 17.26% [1] - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 48.642 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.27% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.016 billion yuan, which is a 34.61% increase [1] - The report anticipates that the "old-for-new" policy may stimulate domestic sales in the second half of the year, with Q4 expected to show improvement, while Q3 remains under observation [1] Revenue Analysis - The report projects that in Q2, domestic and overseas sales will see a year-on-year change of approximately -8% and +35% respectively. In Q1, the expected changes were +19% and +20% [1] - By product category, the revenue growth is expected to be led by washing machines and refrigerators, followed by home air conditioners and central air conditioners. Specifically, central air conditioners are projected to contribute 4 billion yuan in Q2 revenue, down 8% year-on-year, while home air conditioners are expected to generate 8 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year [1] Profit Analysis - The central air conditioning segment is expected to be the largest contributor to net profit growth in Q2, with an estimated net profit margin increase of 3 percentage points, contributing approximately 80 million yuan to net profit growth [1] - The home air conditioning segment is projected to contribute around 40 million yuan to net profit growth, while the washing machine segment is expected to have a minimal impact on net profit growth [1] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for Hisense Home Appliances has been adjusted for 2024-2026, with expected revenues of 94.608 billion yuan, 103.175 billion yuan, and 110.475 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.5%, 9.1%, and 7.1% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.269 billion yuan, 3.672 billion yuan, and 4.094 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 12.3%, and 11.5% [2]