SCIE(600546) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-09-01 11:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][18]. Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in coal production and sales in Q2, with expectations for Q3 production to remain stable year-on-year. Cost control measures are showing initial results, and the company anticipates a dividend payout ratio of 60% for the year [3][4]. - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.057 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.01% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.291 billion yuan, down 57.79% year-on-year. Q2 revenue was 7.701 billion yuan, down 23.2% year-on-year but up 21.17% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 707 million yuan, down 48.42% year-on-year but up 21.3% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in the company's EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 due to significant downward pressure on coal prices, with new EPS estimates of 1.51, 1.60, and 1.67 yuan respectively [3][4]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - The company produced 15.3812 million tons of raw coal in H1 2024, a decrease of 27.4% year-on-year, with sales of 11.9175 million tons, down 38.51% year-on-year. Q2 production was 7.8666 million tons, up 4.68% quarter-on-quarter, and sales were 6.456 million tons, up 18.21% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The improvement in Q2 production is attributed to the easing of high-pressure policies in Shanxi province that affected production in Q1, and the expected elimination of year-on-year effects from capacity reductions starting in Q3 [3][4]. Pricing and Cost Control - The average selling price in H1 was 685.92 yuan per ton, down 6.11% year-on-year, while unit costs were 306.95 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross profit of 378.97 yuan per ton. In Q2, the selling price was 705.89 yuan per ton, up 6.58% quarter-on-quarter, and the cost per ton was 305.74 yuan, down 0.85% quarter-on-quarter, leading to a gross profit of 400.15 yuan per ton, up 13.06% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. Coal Trading Business - The company reported coal trading revenue of 5.580 billion yuan in H1, down 10.13% year-on-year, with trading volume of 8.9134 million tons, up 17.77% year-on-year. The average selling price was 626.02 yuan per ton. The company has successfully developed new coal sources from Malaysia and Indonesia, optimizing its import structure [3][4].