HAIDILAO(06862) 国泰君安·2024-09-01 12:50Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Haidilao (6862) [2] Core Views - Despite weak demand and consumption downgrade trends, Haidilao's stable operations and superior dividend payout ratio justify a higher valuation multiple of 18x PE compared to the industry average of 13x PE [4] - The target price is revised downward to RMB 14.53 (-22%), equivalent to HKD 15.89, while maintaining the "Buy" rating [4] - Haidilao's H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 21.491 billion, a 14% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders declining by 9.7% to RMB 2.038 billion [4] - Excluding tax credits and exchange gains/losses (approximately RMB 400 million), core business profit is estimated to have grown 13% YoY, aligning with the company's disclosed Non-GAAP core operating profit growth [4] Operational Performance - Turnover rates continue to recover across all store tiers: Tier 1/Tier 2/Tier 3 & below/overseas/overall at 4/4.3/4.1/4.2/4.2, showing YoY increases of 18%/23%/28%/2%/24% respectively [4] - Same-store sales growth varies significantly by region: +11%/-48%/+20%/+2%/+15% for Tier 1/Tier 2/Tier 3 & below/overseas/overall respectively [4] - Average customer spending shows a downward trend across all regions, with overall spending down 5.3% YoY [4] - Store network strategy shifts towards Tier 2 and 3 cities, with net store openings of -12/+9/+13/+10/+1/+11 in Tier 1/Tier 2/Tier 3 & below/overseas/overall respectively [4] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown: Restaurant operations (+13.8%), other restaurants (+74.3%), delivery (+23.3%), and condiment/ingredient sales (-19.2%) [4] - Cost structure: Raw materials (39%), staff costs (33.3%), property rental (1%), depreciation (6.2%), and utilities (3.4%) [4] - Staff costs increased due to higher headcount per store (from 99 to 106 employees) and increased promotional activities [4] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts revised to RMB 4.5/5.0/5.4 billion, with EPS of RMB 0.81/0.90/0.98 [4] - Revenue projections: 2024E RMB 44.960 billion (+8.46%), 2025E RMB 49.071 billion (+9.15%), 2026E RMB 51.580 billion (+5.11%) [5] - PE ratios: 2024E 14.81x, 2025E 13.38x, 2026E 12.28x [5] Market Data - Current share price: HKD 13.12 [3] - 52-week price range: HKD 11.80-22.10 [6] - Current market capitalization: HKD 73.131 billion [6]