LZLJ(SZ:000568) China Post Securities·2024-09-02 05:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [10]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient revenue growth in the first half of 2024, achieving operating income of 169.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.84% [3]. - The gross margin and net profit margin for the first half of 2024 were 88.57% and 47.49%, respectively, showing slight changes compared to the previous year [4]. - The company is expected to achieve its annual revenue growth target of no less than 15% for 2024, with projected revenues of 348.45 billion yuan for 2024 [7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 80.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.22% [3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw operating income of 77.16 billion yuan, with a net profit of 34.54 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.51% [3]. - The company’s sales cash collection for the first half of 2024 was 201.62 billion yuan, up 14.66% year-on-year [4]. Product Performance - In the first half of 2024, the revenue from high-end liquor reached 152.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.12%, with sales volume growing by 25.71% [5]. - The average price of high-end liquor decreased by 6.83% to 71.48 thousand yuan per ton, attributed to faster growth in mid-range liquor sales [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 348.45 billion yuan for 2024, 395.53 billion yuan for 2025, and 441.69 billion yuan for 2026, with respective growth rates of 15.26%, 13.51%, and 11.67% [7][9]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 150.51 billion yuan, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 10.23 yuan [7][9].