Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 民生证券·2024-09-02 04:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][29]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 2.52 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.3%. The net profit for Q2 2024 was 1.36 billion yuan, up 115% year-on-year and 16.5% quarter-on-quarter [2][7]. - The production of electrolytic aluminum significantly increased in H1 2024, with a total output of 1.351 million tons, a rise of 37.7% year-on-year. The average aluminum price was 19,798 yuan per ton, up 1,310 yuan per ton year-on-year [2][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing value of green aluminum under the "dual carbon" goals, with a projected net profit of 4.845 billion yuan, 5.477 billion yuan, and 6.094 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][29]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 24.65 billion yuan, with a significant contribution from electrolytic aluminum, which accounted for 56.2% of total revenue [8][10]. - The gross profit from electrolytic aluminum was 2.14 billion yuan, a 51.4% increase year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 15.3% [11][13]. Production and Pricing - The company set production targets for 2024, aiming for 1.4 million tons of alumina and 2.7 million tons of electrolytic aluminum [12]. - The average price of alumina was 3,506 yuan per ton, an increase of 397 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the price of prebaked anodes decreased by 1,478 yuan per ton [12][18]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to have significant earnings elasticity due to its large electrolytic aluminum production capacity and low costs [2][21]. - The report highlights the potential for green aluminum to gain value as carbon trading mechanisms develop, particularly with the implementation of carbon tariffs in Europe [24][27]. Dividend Distribution - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.23 yuan per share, totaling 798 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 32% [2].