顺鑫农业：稳白酒，猪肉减亏，盈利能力提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [4][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.687 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45%, but turned a profit with a net profit of 423 million yuan compared to a loss of 81 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The white liquor business remains stable, while the pork business has shown signs of reduced losses, with a focus on improving profitability [2]. - The report highlights a strategic focus on maintaining the white liquor segment and reducing losses in the pork business as the main themes for the company [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenues of 4.698 billion yuan from white liquor, 786 million yuan from pork, and 203 million yuan from other businesses, with year-on-year changes of +3.17%, -36.64%, and -51.35% respectively [2]. - The company’s revenue from the Beijing region was 1.601 billion yuan, down 22.93%, while revenue from outside Beijing was 4.085 billion yuan, down 1.17% [2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 34.05%, an increase of 12.58 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of -1.72%, improving from -19.26% in the same period last year [2]. Business Segments - The white liquor segment's revenue breakdown shows high-end liquor (over 50 yuan per 500ml) at 603 million yuan, mid-range liquor (10-50 yuan) at 638 million yuan, and low-end liquor (under 10 yuan) at 3.456 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +5.94%, -7.29%, and +4.87% respectively [2]. - The pork business has seen a reduction in losses, with a revenue contribution of 13.82% in H1 2024, down 6.14 percentage points year-on-year, and a gross margin of 2.53%, up 14.95 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 506 million yuan, 708 million yuan, and 856 million yuan respectively, with previous estimates being 479 million yuan, 618 million yuan, and 848 million yuan [2][3].