扬农化工：1H24业绩承压下滑，优创项目一阶段进入试生产

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing performance pressure with a significant decline in revenue and profit due to a drop in pesticide product prices. In 1H24, the company achieved total revenue of 5.699 billion yuan, down 19.36% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 763 million yuan, down 32.10% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of raw materials decreased by 23.91% year-on-year, while the sales volume increased by 3.3%. The average selling price of formulations fell by 8.39% year-on-year, with a sales volume decrease of 1.7% [1] - The global crop protection market demand is expected to recover, with the company likely to benefit from the bottoming out of pesticide raw material prices and a gradual return to normal pricing in the end market [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company reported total revenue of 5.699 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.36% year-on-year, and a net profit of 763 million yuan, down 32.10% year-on-year. The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 2.523 billion yuan, down 1.70% year-on-year and 20.55% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average selling price of raw materials was 66,500 yuan per ton, down 23.91% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 50,000 tons, up 3.3%. The average selling price of formulations was 42,900 yuan per ton, down 8.39% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 28,100 tons, down 1.7% [1] Market Outlook - The pesticide raw material prices are expected to stabilize at the bottom, and the global crop protection market demand is anticipated to continue recovering. As of August 25, 2024, the raw material price index was 74.85 points, down 18.8% year-on-year, indicating a smaller decline [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the pesticide industry, with expectations of increased demand as inventory depletion in overseas markets nears completion [2] Future Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 1.294 billion yuan, 1.634 billion yuan, and 1.915 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16X, 13X, and 11X [2]