国联证券：2024年半年报点评：Q2业绩显著回升，经纪业务超预期，看好外延式扩张增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Guolian Securities, with a target price of 14.0 CNY, indicating an expected outperformance of 10%-20% relative to the benchmark index over the next six months [2][4][14]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance showed a significant recovery, particularly in brokerage business, which exceeded expectations. The report highlights the potential for growth through external expansion [2][5]. - The report projects the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.26, 0.32, and 0.36 CNY respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of 6.35, 6.54, and 6.76 CNY [2][5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 was 1.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 40%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 90 million CNY, down 85.4% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) for the reporting period was 0.5%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the quarterly ROE was 1.7%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][5]. - The financial leverage ratio at the end of the reporting period was 4.5 times, an increase of 0.32 times year-on-year [2][5]. Business Segment Performance - The brokerage business saw a significant quarter-on-quarter increase, with revenue reaching 280 million CNY, marking a 58.3% increase. This was achieved despite a 7.3% decrease in average daily trading volume during the same period [2][5]. - Investment banking revenue was stable, amounting to 170 million CNY, with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase [2][5]. - Asset management revenue showed slight improvement, totaling 310 million CNY, with a quarterly revenue of 170 million CNY, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3 million CNY [2][5].