凯盛新能：销量延续快速增长，盈利能力承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 9.59 RMB for A-shares and 4.49 HKD for H-shares, both of which have been downgraded [6][8]. Core Views - The company has experienced rapid growth in sales, with photovoltaic glass sales volume increasing by 31% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, but profitability is under pressure due to declining prices [2][4]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 2.98 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -50 million RMB, a decrease of 1.8 billion RMB year-on-year [1][5]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will be -0.32 RMB in 2024, 0.12 RMB in 2025, and 0.52 RMB in 2026, indicating a recovery trend in profitability [1][10]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.54 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14%, but the net profit was -50 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 1.6 billion RMB year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for photovoltaic glass in the first half of 2024 was 6.9%, down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price declines [2][3]. Cost Structure and Cash Flow - The company's expense ratio remained relatively stable at 8.4% in the first half of 2024, with financial expenses increasing due to a rise in interest-bearing liabilities [3][10]. - Operating cash flow improved, with a net cash flow of -20 million RMB in the first half of 2024, an increase of 370 million RMB year-on-year, attributed to better management of operating funds [3][10]. Production Capacity and Market Outlook - The company is undergoing cold repairs on multiple production lines, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics and enhance production efficiency in the medium to long term [4][10]. - The photovoltaic installation demand in China has continued to grow, with an increase of 27.1% year-on-year in new installations from January to July 2024 [4][10].