FIRST TRACTOR(SH:601038) Guohai Securities·2024-09-02 05:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6]. Core Views - The tractor business of the company has seen both volume and price increases, leading to improved profitability [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 7.807 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 905 million yuan, which is a 20.05% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Business Performance - The tractor market concentration is increasing, with the company's products experiencing simultaneous volume and price growth. The agricultural production scale is rising, with large tractors outperforming medium tractors, leading to a continuous increase in market share [3]. - In H1 2024, the agricultural machinery segment achieved revenue of 7.093 billion yuan, with export revenue increasing by 9.6% year-on-year. The sales volume reached 51,000 units, up 4.3% year-on-year, and the average price was 139,100 yuan, reflecting a 5.1% increase year-on-year [3]. Market Expansion - The company is expanding into overseas markets, with H1 2024 overseas revenue reaching 564 million yuan, accounting for 7.2% of total revenue. The tractor export sales were 4,209 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. The company is exploring markets in Central Asia and the Caucasus to offset sales losses from the Russian market due to increased scrappage taxes [3]. Profitability and Financial Forecast - The company has improved its cost control, leading to a steady increase in profitability. The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 17.01%, up 1.16 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 11.60%, an increase of 1.20 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company forecasts revenues of 12.680 billion yuan, 13.824 billion yuan, and 15.024 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.94%, 9.02%, and 8.68%. The net profits attributable to shareholders are projected to be 1.174 billion yuan, 1.359 billion yuan, and 1.567 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 17.78%, 15.77%, and 15.25% respectively [3][5].