LZLJ(SZ:000568) Guohai Securities·2024-09-02 05:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 15.8% year-on-year increase in operating income for H1 2024, reaching 169.05 billion yuan, and a 13.2% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 80.28 billion yuan [6][8] - The company is focusing on maintaining quality growth without sacrificing development speed, despite weak demand in business and banquet scenarios [7][8] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its strong brand and channel foundation, with long-term growth prospects remaining positive [8][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 169.05 billion yuan, up 15.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 80.28 billion yuan, up 13.2% year-on-year [6] - For Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 77.16 billion yuan, a 10.51% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 34.54 billion yuan, a 2.24% increase year-on-year [6][8] Product and Channel Analysis - Mid-to-high-end liquor revenue reached 152.13 billion yuan in H1 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.1%, driven by a 25.7% increase in sales volume [4] - The company has expanded its traditional channels, adding 59 new distributors domestically, while reducing overseas distributors by 12 [4][8] - New sales channels, including online flagship stores and live streaming, have significantly increased revenue and improved profitability, with gross margin rising by 10.2 percentage points to 79% [4][8] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 348 billion yuan in 2024, 404 billion yuan in 2025, and 474 billion yuan in 2026, with net profits expected to be 153 billion yuan, 176 billion yuan, and 209 billion yuan respectively [8][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 10.38 yuan in 2024, 11.96 yuan in 2025, and 14.23 yuan in 2026 [9][10]