泸州老窖:2024年中报业绩点评:夯实基础,防范风险

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.905 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.84%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.028 billion yuan, up 13.22% year-on-year [2] - The revenue growth for Q2 2024 was 7.716 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.51%, and the net profit for Q2 was 3.454 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.24% [2] - The company aims to achieve a full-year revenue growth target of over 15% [2] - The company is focusing on channel quality and has implemented a strategy to stabilize prices while increasing volume [2] - The company is leveraging digital tools for management efficiency and is optimistic about its dual-brand national layout [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to reach 34.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.44% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 15.402 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.27% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 10.46 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.40 [2] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 15.4 billion, 17.726 billion, and 21.518 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 8 [2]