JGJC(000799) Southwest Securities·2024-09-02 05:50Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 990 million yuan for H1 2024, a decrease of 35.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120 million yuan, down 71.3% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is undergoing a transformation in its marketing strategy, shifting from channel fee-based sales to a sales-driven growth model, which has temporarily impacted sales performance [2][3]. - The gross margin has declined, with Q1 and Q2 2024 gross margins at 71.1% and 75.6%, respectively, due to a decrease in product mix and increased sales and management expenses [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 total revenue was 990 million yuan, with Q2 revenue at 500 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 35.5% and 13.3%, respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2024 was 120 million yuan, with Q2 net profit at 48 million yuan, showing declines of 71.3% and 60.9% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s revenue from different product lines showed significant variation, with the "Jiu Gui" series down 30.1% and the "Xiang Quan" series up 36.3% [2]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on its "Jiu Gui" and "Nei Can" product lines, enhancing market presence and optimizing the value chain [3]. - Efforts are being made to improve sales in both domestic and key external markets, with 11 model markets initiated in H1 2024 [3]. - The company is also enhancing the quality of its distributor network and improving service efficiency at retail points [3]. Profitability Forecast - EPS is projected to be 1.09 yuan, 1.31 yuan, and 1.64 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 26, and 21 [3][4]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in sales, particularly in the "Nei Can" series, with expected sales growth rates of -30%, +6%, and +8% from 2024 to 2026 [7]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total revenue is expected to be 2.83 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 12.18% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 547.81 million yuan for 2024, down 35.44% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 75.6% for the next few years [10].