YTL(000960) Guoyuan Securities·2024-09-02 05:50Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its profitability, with a notable increase in non-recurring net profit by 67.95% year-on-year [2][4]. - The overall demand for tin products is recovering, driven by the semiconductor industry's stabilization and inventory replenishment in certain regions [3][4]. - The company maintains a strong position in the global tin market, holding a 22.92% share, with expectations for continued demand growth [6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 187.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.77% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16.35% to 8.00 billion yuan [2][4]. - The production of tin reached 45,200 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, contributing to a revenue of 74.95 billion yuan from tin ingots, which is a 51.63% increase [4][5]. - The gross margin for tin ingots improved to 12.79%, up by 5.11 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The average price of tin in the first half of 2024 was 251,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 21.19% year-on-year, driven by positive macroeconomic sentiment and supply constraints [3]. - The global supply of tin ore has decreased significantly due to policy changes in Southeast Asian tin-producing countries, impacting overall availability [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 20.92 billion yuan, 27.79 billion yuan, and 30.26 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.98, 8.26, and 7.59 [6][11]. - The ongoing recovery in the semiconductor sector is anticipated to sustain demand for tin products, further supporting the company's growth trajectory [6].