NHD(SZ:002946) Southwest Securities·2024-09-02 05:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 300 million yuan, up 25.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company's "Fresh Cube Strategy" continues to drive growth, particularly in the high-end fresh milk segment, which saw a year-on-year growth of approximately 15% [1]. - The company aims to double its net profit margin over the next five years through a focus on low-temperature products, technological innovation, and strategic acquisitions [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.75 billion yuan, a decline of 0.9% year-on-year, while the net profit was 210 million yuan, an increase of 17.7% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 29.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw milk prices and product mix optimization [1]. - The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 5.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point [1]. Business Strategy - The company is committed to its new five-year strategic plan, focusing on strengthening its core business and enhancing corporate value [1]. - The company has secured 60% of its raw milk supply through self-owned and equity-held sources, aligning with its Fresh Cube Strategy and reinforcing its market position in low-temperature dairy products [1]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 540 million yuan for 2024, 640 million yuan for 2025, and 760 million yuan for 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.63 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 0.88 yuan [2][3]. - The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 14 times for 2024, 12 times for 2025, and 10 times for 2026 [2].