蒙牛乳业：业绩表现承压，回购彰显信心

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a focus on potential recovery and growth in the second half of the year [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that Mengniu Dairy's revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 44.671 billion, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.446 billion, down 19.0% year-on-year [2]. - The report emphasizes that the overall demand in the dairy product industry was below expectations, leading to increased channel inventory and pressure on revenue across various business segments [2]. - Despite the challenges, the report notes operational improvements and a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns, including a share buyback plan of up to HKD 2 billion and an increase in cash dividend payout [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, revenue from liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, and cheese was RMB 41.640 billion, RMB 4.309 billion, RMB 1.894 billion, and RMB 2.256 billion, reflecting year-on-year declines of 12.9%, 21.8%, 13.7%, and 6.3% respectively [2]. - The gross margin improved to 40.3%, an increase of 1.99 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw milk prices [2]. - The operating profit margin met initial expectations, expanding by 0.6 percentage points to 7.0% [2]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for Mengniu Dairy to be RMB 4.279 billion, RMB 4.723 billion, and RMB 5.549 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12, 11, and 9 times [3]. - The company is expected to gradually restore revenue and profit growth in the second half of the year as channel inventory returns to reasonable levels [2]. Key Financial Metrics - The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 91.353 billion, a decrease of 7.37% year-on-year, with a projected net profit margin of 4.68% [4][6]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 39.01% in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 8.83% [4][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 1.09 for 2024, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.21 [4][6].