YTL(SZ:000960) Guoyuan Securities·2024-09-02 06:03Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its profitability, with a notable increase in non-recurring net profit by 67.95% year-on-year [2][4]. - The overall revenue for the first half of 2024 decreased by 17.77% compared to the previous year, primarily due to a decline in supply chain business scale and the exclusion of deep processing segments [4]. - The demand for tin products is expected to continue to grow, driven by the recovery in the semiconductor industry and other sectors [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 187.75 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.00 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.35% [2][4]. - The production of tin reached 45,200 tons, marking a 6.6% increase year-on-year, while the overall production of non-ferrous metals totaled 185,200 tons [4]. - The gross profit margin for tin ingots improved to 12.79%, up by 5.11 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability in this segment [4][5]. Market Dynamics Summary - The global supply of tin ore has significantly declined due to policy changes in Southeast Asian tin-producing countries, while domestic tin ingot production remained stable [3]. - The average price of tin in the first half of 2024 was 251,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 21.19% year-on-year, reflecting strong market conditions [3]. - The demand for tin is recovering, particularly in electronic solder and tinplate sectors, supported by inventory replenishment in certain overseas regions [3]. Investment Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 20.92 billion yuan, 27.79 billion yuan, and 30.26 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.98 for 2024, 8.26 for 2025, and 7.59 for 2026, indicating potential for price appreciation [6].