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鼎胜新材:24H1业绩同比下降,但单Q2业绩环比改善明显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price reflecting an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [3][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 (24H1) was 11.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 48% to 184 million yuan [1]. - In the second quarter of 2024 (24Q2), the company achieved a revenue of 6.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24%, with a net profit of 153 million yuan, down 22% year-on-year but up 403% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in the profit forecast for 2024 and 2025, with expected net profits of 520 million yuan and 640 million yuan, respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.77 billion yuan and 2.18 billion yuan [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to have a revenue of 24.21 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 27% [2]. - The EBITDA for 2024E is estimated at 1.42 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 518.53 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.05% compared to 2023 [2]. - The company's gross profit margin for 24H1 was 9.88%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 1.6%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Cost and Expense Analysis - Selling and financial expenses decreased by 12.6% and 7.5% year-on-year in 24H1, while management expenses increased by 36% due to the consolidation of SLIM Aluminum [2]. - Research and development expenses rose by 5.8% year-on-year [2]. Valuation Metrics - The average valuation for comparable companies in 2024 is estimated at 22 times earnings [1]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024E is projected to be 15.11, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 1.11 [2][8].