HUAXIN CEMENT(600801) 华龙证券·2024-09-02 09:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue growth against the trend, with cement prices declining putting pressure on profits. In the first half of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 16.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 38.74% to 731 million yuan [1][2] - Despite a significant decline in domestic cement demand, the company managed to increase its revenue, supported by growth in aggregate and concrete business, as well as overseas sales [2][3] - The overseas cement and clinker sales volume increased by 47.0% year-on-year, reaching 7.5976 million tons in the first half of 2024, contributing significantly to the company's performance [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a cement and clinker sales volume of 28.4844 million tons, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year, with average selling prices dropping by 21.76 yuan/ton to 304.24 yuan/ton [1] - The overall gross margin decreased by 0.73 percentage points compared to the same period last year, standing at 24.38% [1] - The aggregate business revenue grew significantly, reaching 2.962 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.96%, while concrete business revenue was 3.943 billion yuan, up 24.21% year-on-year [1][2] Revenue Forecast - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 34.117 billion yuan, 37.384 billion yuan, and 39.187 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.874 billion yuan, 2.434 billion yuan, and 2.602 billion yuan [2][3] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 11.9, 9.1, and 8.5 respectively, compared to the average valuation of comparable companies at 20.4 times P/E for 2024 [2][4]