天润乳业：疆外市场持续开拓，牧业板块拖累利润

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for Tianrun Dairy [1]. Core Insights - Tianrun Dairy's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 1.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -30 million yuan [1][12]. - The company is expanding its market presence outside Xinjiang, with revenue from outside Xinjiang growing by 12.9% year-on-year [1][12]. - The profitability of the livestock segment is under pressure due to high breeding costs and declining raw milk prices, leading to a gross margin of 17.3%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [1][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 800 million yuan, a 5.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of -30 million yuan [1][12]. - Revenue breakdown: - Ambient dairy products: 780 million yuan (flat) - Low-temperature dairy products: 580 million yuan (+3.5%) - Livestock products: 60 million yuan (+42.7%) [1][12]. - Revenue from Xinjiang was 730 million yuan (-5.6%), while revenue from outside Xinjiang was 700 million yuan (+12.9%) [1][12]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on both Xinjiang and external markets, with a strategy to deepen market penetration in Xinjiang while expanding into other regions [1][31]. - The company has achieved full coverage of county-level markets in Xinjiang and is steadily increasing its market share outside the region [1][31]. Product Development - Tianrun Dairy has a strong product lineup, including unique flavors and high consumer repurchase rates, supported by a self-sufficient milk source rate of 92.4% in 2023 [1][28]. - The company is actively developing new products, such as zero-sugar yogurt and organic yogurt, to meet changing consumer preferences [1][28]. Future Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 10 million yuan, 70 million yuan, and 130 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.04 yuan, 0.23 yuan, and 0.42 yuan [2][34]. - Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.5% from 2024 to 2026 [34].