hbky(600985) Great Wall Securities·2024-09-02 10:11Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Huabei Mining to "Buy" based on expected performance improvements in coal and coal chemical businesses [8][15]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 37.236 billion yuan, down 0.17% year-on-year, and net profit at 2.935 billion yuan, down 18.19% year-on-year [1][2]. - The coal business showed stable cost control with a slight increase in gross margin, while the ethanol project contributed positively to performance [3][8]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 73.997 billion yuan, 75.588 billion yuan, and 77.570 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: 2022A: 69,062 million yuan, 2023A: 73,387 million yuan, 2024E: 73,997 million yuan, 2025E: 75,588 million yuan, 2026E: 77,570 million yuan [1][10]. - Net Profit: 2022A: 7,011 million yuan, 2023A: 6,225 million yuan, 2024E: 6,105 million yuan, 2025E: 6,663 million yuan, 2026E: 7,400 million yuan [1][10]. - EPS: 2022A: 2.60 yuan, 2023A: 2.31 yuan, 2024E: 2.27 yuan, 2025E: 2.47 yuan, 2026E: 2.75 yuan [1][10]. - ROE: 2022A: 18.8%, 2023A: 14.3%, 2024E: 13.6%, 2025E: 13.5%, 2026E: 13.6% [1][11]. Business Segment Analysis - Coal Business: In H1 2024, coal production was 10.3234 million tons, down 8.86% year-on-year, with sales volume at 8.0329 million tons, down 18.17% year-on-year. The average selling price per ton was 1,144.33 yuan, down 9.85% year-on-year [3][7]. - Coal Chemical Business: The methanol production in H1 2024 was 160,400 tons, down 35.24% year-on-year, while ethanol production was 75,500 tons, contributing positively to the overall performance [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with ongoing projects and a strong market position in the coal sector. The integration of coal and coal chemical businesses is anticipated to enhance profitability [8][10].