Shenergy(600642) 光大证券·2024-09-02 10:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing improving fundamentals and a high dividend payout ratio [3] Core Views - The company's coal power profitability has significantly improved in H1 2024, with coal power gross profit per kWh increasing by 0.03 yuan/kWh year-over-year [2] - Green power profitability has slightly declined, with photovoltaic gross profit per kWh decreasing by 0.053 yuan/kWh year-over-year [2] - Investment income has contributed significantly, with equity method investment income reaching 552 million yuan in H1 2024, up from 247 million yuan in the same period last year [3] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.68 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 1.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 18.66% to 2.191 billion yuan [2] - The company's coal power generation reached 19.175 billion kWh in H1 2024, a slight increase of 0.4% year-over-year, while natural gas power generation increased by 7.3% to 3.027 billion kWh [2] - The company's average coal consumption for power supply decreased to 281.34 g/kWh in H1 2024, down 1.6 g/kWh year-over-year, and the average standard coal price decreased by 163 yuan/ton to 984 yuan/ton [2] Valuation and Forecast - The report lowers the company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 3.862/4.000/4.258 billion yuan, representing a 2%/10%/11% reduction from previous estimates [3] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 10/10/9 times for 2024-2026, with EPS of 0.79/0.82/0.87 yuan [3] - The company's ROE (diluted) is expected to remain stable at around 10.7%-10.9% from 2024-2026 [4] Operational Highlights - Wind power generation decreased by 2.6% year-over-year to 2.753 billion kWh in H1 2024 due to unfavorable wind conditions [2] - Photovoltaic and distributed power generation increased by 29.7% year-over-year to 1.454 billion kWh in H1 2024, driven by capacity expansion [2] - The company's coal power and natural gas power on-grid prices (excluding tax) were 0.341 yuan/kWh and 0.806 yuan/kWh respectively in H1 2024 [2] Financial Position - The company's total market capitalization stands at 38.419 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 4.894 billion shares [5] - The company's current price is 7.85 yuan, with a 1-year price range of 5.45-9.27 yuan [5] - The company's 3-month turnover rate is 34.84% [5]