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兴森科技:2024H1业绩实现稳健增长,持续推进FCBGA项目落地

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [2][14]. Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in H1 2024, with revenue reaching 2.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.29%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.501 million yuan, up 7.99% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 28.763 million yuan, a significant increase of 353.13% [3][4]. - The company is actively advancing its FCBGA project, with cumulative investments of approximately 3.3 billion yuan as of the end of May 2024. The Zhuhai factory has entered small-scale production, and the Guangzhou factory's first phase has been completed, with mass production expected to begin after product certification in Q3 2024 [3][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 5,354 - 2023A: 5,360 - 2024E: 6,137 - 2025E: 7,108 - 2026E: 8,348 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022: 6.2% - 2023: 0.1% - 2024E: 14.5% - 2025E: 15.8% - 2026E: 17.4% [2][10]. - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2022A: 526 - 2023A: 211 - 2024E: 246 - 2025E: 423 - 2026E: 831 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022: -15.4% - 2023: -59.8% - 2024E: 16.4% - 2025E: 72.0% - 2026E: 96.5% [2][10]. Business Segments - The company focuses on two main business lines: 1. PCB Business: Revenue reached 2.170 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.48%. The company is enhancing its Anylayer HDI and SLP business layouts while expanding into high-end optical modules and millimeter-wave communication markets [3]. 2. Semiconductor Business: Revenue was 600 million yuan, up 27.79%, with IC packaging substrate revenue at 531 million yuan, a significant increase of 83.50%, driven by the recovery in the storage chip industry [3]. Profitability and Financial Ratios - Gross margin for H1 2024 was 16.56%, a decrease of 8.62 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was -3.07%, down 3.14 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to expenses related to the FCBGA packaging substrate business and losses from subsidiaries [3]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 246 million, 423 million, and 831 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 60.8, 35.4, and 18.0 [4][10].