新乳业：业绩表现优于行业整体，成本红利下盈利改善

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" investment rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [4]. Core Views - The company has outperformed the industry in terms of performance, with a focus on low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, which have driven its growth despite increased competition [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve high-quality development even under industry pressure, with a strong certainty of profit improvement [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 296 million yuan, up 25.26% [1][2]. - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.751 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.94% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 17.72% to 207 million yuan [1][2]. Product and Regional Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other businesses was 4.844 billion yuan, 35 million yuan, and 486 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of +0.54%, -15.20%, and +10.64% [2]. - Revenue by region showed varied performance, with notable growth in North China (+20.21%) while Southwest and Northwest regions faced challenges due to the high proportion of ambient milk sales [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company's gross margin improved in H1 2024, with gross and net margins increasing by 1.26 and 1.06 percentage points to 29.23% and 5.53%, respectively [2]. - The decline in raw milk prices contributed to the improvement in profitability, and the company is expected to continue enhancing its profit levels through ongoing efficiency initiatives [2][4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 11.235 billion yuan, 11.955 billion yuan, and 12.831 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.3%, 6.4%, and 7.3% respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 550 million yuan, 659 million yuan, and 795 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 27.8%, 19.8%, and 20.6% [4].