通威股份：半年报点评：盈利水平短期承压，持续推进产能扩张

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. is "Recommended" [3][10]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under short-term pressure, primarily due to a significant decline in the photovoltaic sector, leading to substantial losses in the first half of 2024. The revenue decreased by 40.87% year-on-year to CNY 437.97 billion, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY 31.29 billion, a decrease of 123.58% year-on-year [5][6]. - Despite the challenges, the company is aggressively expanding its production capacity in polysilicon and industrial silicon, with a projected polysilicon capacity exceeding 850,000 tons by the end of 2024 [6][8]. - The company has achieved significant growth in its solar cell and module sales, with module sales increasing by 108.36% year-on-year to 18.67 GW in the first half of 2024 [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 437.97 billion, down 40.87% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of CNY 31.29 billion, a decrease of 123.58% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of CNY 242.27 billion, also down 40.66% year-on-year, with a net loss of CNY 23.43 billion, a decrease of 150.18% year-on-year [5][6]. Business Segments - The agricultural and animal husbandry segment remained stable, with a revenue decline of approximately 6% but an increase in gross margin by 0.97 percentage points to 9.16%. However, the photovoltaic segment faced significant challenges due to oversupply, leading to a sharp decline in product prices and gross margins [6][8]. - The company sold 228,900 tons of polysilicon in the first half of 2024, an increase of 28.82% year-on-year. The Yunnan 200,000-ton polysilicon project was successfully put into production in May 2024 [6][8]. Capacity Expansion and Technology Innovation - The company is actively advancing its TOPCon and heterojunction (HJT) battery technology innovations, with plans to exceed 100 GW of TOPCon battery capacity by the end of 2024. The company has also completed the transformation of its 38 GW PERC capacity and is expanding into key overseas markets [6][8]. - The company aims to strengthen its cost advantages in polysilicon production through new industrial silicon projects in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan, expected to be operational by the end of 2024 [6][8]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of CNY -48.64 billion, CNY 12.11 billion, and CNY 37.82 billion, respectively. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be -16.9, 67.7, and 21.7 times [8].