GRGTEST(002967) 国盛证券·2024-09-03 02:23Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Guangdian Measurement (002967 SZ) with a "Buy" rating, forecasting 2024-2026 net profits of 262/326/399 million yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 31 4%/24 5%/22 1% [1] Core Business - The company's core business includes metrology and testing, with metrology contributing 25% of total revenue in 2023 (700 million yuan) and testing accounting for 58% [1] - Metrology market share has steadily increased from 3% in 2016 to 6% in 2023, demonstrating leading advantages [1] - Testing services focus on scientific research and innovation, covering environmental testing, EMC, chemical analysis, and serving industries like military, automotive, aerospace, rail transit, and shipbuilding [1] Growth Opportunities - Aerospace: The company is the most involved third-party metrology and testing institution in domestic civil aircraft models, having participated in C919 fuel system and vibration reduction device localization verification [1] - Integrated Circuits: Semiconductor testing revenue reached 200 million yuan in 2023, a 34% year-over-year increase, with strong growth potential driven by chip localization and third-party lab penetration [1] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from 2 604 million yuan in 2022 to 2 889 million yuan in 2023, with projected growth to 3 205/3 587/4 014 million yuan in 2024-2026 [2] - Net profit attributable to parent company increased from 184 million yuan in 2022 to 199 million yuan in 2023, with forecasts of 262/326/399 million yuan for 2024-2026 [2] - EPS is projected to grow from 0 34 yuan in 2023 to 0 45/0 56/0 68 yuan in 2024-2026 [2] Industry Analysis - China's testing and inspection industry reached 467 billion yuan in 2023, with a 13% CAGR from 2014-2023 [28] - The construction materials testing segment is the largest, accounting for 25% of the market, while emerging fields like electronics and machinery show higher growth rates [31] - The industry is highly fragmented, with CR5 of only 3 11% in 2023, indicating significant consolidation potential [38] Competitive Advantages - The company has comprehensive technical capabilities across ten metrology fields, with particular strengths in radio, time-frequency, and electromagnetic metrology [46] - It operates over 60 subsidiaries nationwide, providing extensive coverage and efficient service [48] - The company has participated in numerous national and provincial-level projects and has established nearly 50 technical standards [52]