Gemdale(600383) 长江证券·2024-09-03 02:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and is maintained [4] Core Views - The company is facing operational challenges due to declining market demand and industry-wide credit tightening, leading to a more cautious operational approach. The company's proactive measures in securing sales collections and disposing of quality assets for cash flow are commendable. As a well-established real estate enterprise, the company still possesses notable operational efficiency and resource endowments. If policies become more accommodative and market demand stabilizes, the company is expected to see marginal improvements in operations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 21.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.7%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 3.36 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 1.53 billion yuan in the same period last year. The adjusted net loss was 2.69 billion yuan, down from a profit of 1.39 billion yuan year-on-year. The comprehensive gross margin was 11.0%, down 5.4 percentage points [5][6]. Sales and Market Position - The company's sales in the first half of 2024 amounted to 36.11 billion yuan, a decline of 57.9%, ranking 14th in the industry. The sales area decreased by 49.0%, with an average selling price of 15,000 yuan per square meter, down 17.5%. The decline in average price may be related to inventory structure and discount promotions. The company did not acquire new projects in the first half of 2024 and actively disposed of assets in cities like Xi'an and Shaoxing to enhance liquidity [6][7]. Debt Management - The company's interest-bearing debt decreased to 81.72 billion yuan, down 25.4%. The proportion of bank loans increased by 18.1 percentage points to 88.9%, and the financing cost decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 4.38%. The company successfully repaid its last dollar bond in August, easing the pressure of debt maturity significantly [7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to face continued pressure on settlement income, with projected net losses of -5.07 billion yuan, 450 million yuan, and 750 million yuan for 2024-2026. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 and 2026 are estimated to be 36 and 21 times, respectively. The recommendation remains to "Accumulate" [6][7].